Moore's Law

• Observation in 1965 by Gorden Moore
• The number of transistors on a chip will double every ____
  • 1 year (Moore)
  • 2 years (later revision)
  • 18 Months (current view)
• Often the end is predicted (End in 2018)
• From Pfister, _In search of Clusters_
  • It MAY end in 2010
  • Cost of chip factories doubles every 3 years.
  • Too few electrons to detect
  • Effects of quantum mechanics
    • Electrons go where they can't go.
    • Electrons are in two places at once.
  • Pfister doesn't believe it because:
    • About 60% of the 154% growth has been due to size changes, algorithms, techniques, and other such changes have done the rest.
    • It has been predicted before, but was not true then.
    • It is a long time from now, and we will find a solution.
  • Others suggestions
    • Increasing chip width .
    • Increasing chip thickness.
    • New technologies.
• Manufactures are driven to meet Moore's law, it is expected.
  • Why should I purchase that new machine if it is not 2x faster.
  • A major factor in the increased use of computers.
• Rock's Law
  • The cost of capital equipment to build semiconductors will double every four years.
  • $12,000 in 68
  • $12,000,000 in late 90's
  • In 2035 they will be smaller than an atom and cost more than the entire wealth of the earth to build.
• Everything points to this ending, or finding a new technology
  • Biological computers
  • Quantum Computers